What is advantage of good education? Will wear out you a
life in different areas of which did not think. But you will work here some
years, and ideas are born: and how it is arranged, and whether it is impossible
to construct unpretentious model? And, frequently, it is possible.
10 years I work in MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM of technological processes at regional thermal stations. There the main signal is the temperature of external air. From it dance. I also have become interested in it.
What processes are the easiest for studying? - Periodic. At averaging casual indignations are mutually compensated, and we receive pure basic process. We know what periodic processes for temperature? - Day and year. And day are obviously different: summer and winter. And year too different but then you will not tell what will be warm / more coldly.
So to study properties of any annual characteristic, likely, more easy, than for any other interval of time. Therefore I also shall start with «long lines» - supervision of temperature of years for 100. And then I shall pass to the following on simplicity to a case - to measurements of temperature within day. Meteorologists are not engaged neither years, nor day, they work on an interval 3 days and extract the forecast - rather a hard task, which I with the approaches while badly present how to decide.
Also I have written this text. There are a lot of pictures - from here and
the name. A table of contents is presented so that you could
estimate, whether you should spend your time downloading the file and reading 22
pages of the text (in RUSSIAN):
|
Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................ |
1 |
|
Long
lines............................................................................................................................................................................... |
2 |
|
Indian summer..................................................................................................................................................................... |
2 |
|
Warming of a climate............................................................................................................................................................
|
5 |
|
Whether
the climate becomes loose?....................................................................................................................................
|
5 |
|
Smile Cheshire's cat............................................................................................................................................................. |
6 |
|
Continental
climate...............................................................................................................................................................
|
8 |
|
Some
words........................................................................................................................................................................
|
9 |
|
Daily cycle...............................................................................................................................................................................
|
10 |
|
Technical measurements and the academic measurements....................................................................................................... |
11 |
|
12 months in one year.......................................................................................................................................................... |
13 |
|
Zero-dimensional
dynamic daily model of nearground temperature........................................................................................
|
15 |
|
The price of a
question........................................................................................................................................................
|
18 |
|
Some
words........................................................................................................................................................................
|
21 |
Mid-annual temperature for 100 years for Saint-Petersburg, Moscow and state Illinois.
Well,
the discussion is, of course, in the text.
The program for selection of parameters of daily model to actual measurements.
The
program DayTemper (in RUSSIAN) may be downloaded too.
Actual temperature for the year round (March 2007 - February 2008).
